AOSC Seminar by Dr. Alicia M. Bentley, 4/20/2023
Dr. Alicia M. Bentley
NOAA NWS NCEP EMC
An Overview of Global Model Verification at the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC)
In order to improve the numerical models produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), model forecasts must be verified and evaluated during development and in production. The Verification, Post-Processing, and Product Generation Branch (VPPPGB) of NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) is responsible for the verification and evaluation of numerical models planned for and included in NCEP’s Production Suite. As part of the verification process, model forecasts are evaluated statistically using a variety of metrics to 1) determine performance characteristics and 2) identify areas for improvement. Forecast maps of high-impact weather, ocean, and climate events are also evaluated to determine the utility of NCEP’s numerical models in situations that impact lives and property.
This presentation provides an overview of global model verification at NCEP/EMC. The performance of NCEP's current global models will be discussed, as well as the results from past official model evaluations (which occur prior to operational model upgrades). Case studies of recent high-impact weather events [e.g., Hurricane Ian (2022)], originally presented by the EMC Model Evaluation Group (MEG), will also be shown. In addition, this presentation will provide a preview of the new EMC Verification System (EVS), which will replace and expand upon EMC’s existing operational verification software in late 2023. EVS will utilize the Model Evaluation Tools (METplus) software to provide a comprehensive look at the global and regional models included in NCEP’s Production Suite. Verification graphics produced by EVS will have a consistent, publication-quality format and will be shared with the broader community daily on EMC’s Verification webpages.
Alicia was a life-long resident of Albany, NY, before moving to the DC area. She studied at the University at Albany, SUNY, where she received her B.S. (2011), M.S. (2014), and Ph.D. (2018) in Atmospheric Science with Drs. Lance Bosart and Daniel Keyser. Her research spanned a variety of topics, including atmospheric rivers, subtropical cyclones that undergo tropical transition, and extratropical cyclones. Alicia also spent the summer of 2017 as an Advanced Studies Program Visiting Scientist at NCAR (where she saw her first tornado).
Alicia began her career at EMC as a contractor in February 2018 before becoming a civil servant in March 2020. She has participated in and led multiple global model evaluations as a member of the Model Evaluation Group (MEG), including GFSv15, the GFSv16 physics suite evaluation, GEFSv12, and GFSv16. Alicia also maintains many of EMC's Verification webpages and is helping oversee the development of the new EMC Verification System (EVS). When Alicia is not at work, she enjoys yoga, painting, reviewing restaurants, and watching NY sports.
Contact: Maria Molina
If you are not subscribed to seminar announcements and need a link to this online seminar please contact aosc-helper. You can also subscribe to weekly links and announcements below.
Pre-seminar refreshment: N/A
Seminar: 3:30-4:30pm, Room: ATL 2400(only when in-person)
Meet-the-Speaker: 4:30-5:00pm, Room: ATL 3400(only when in-person) [For AOSC Students only]