Event Start
Event Time
3:30 p.m.
Atlantic Building Room 2400 & Zoom

AOSC Seminar by Dr. Claudia Tebaldi, 1/26/2023

AOSC Seminar

Dr. Claudia Tebaldi

Joint Global Change Research Institute (PNNL) / Climate Central



Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6



The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defined and coordinated the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). In this talk, I will present a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. Importantly, however, I will precede the description of these geophysical outcomes with a succinct overview of the process leading to the development of scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions and other external, anthropogenic forcings. This process involved the adoption of a formal framework to organize the exploration of socio-economic futures, and then the actual computation – through integrated assessment models (IAMs) of a range of future trajectories of emissions, that form the CMIP6 scenarios climate models have used as forcings. I will therefore describe the concept of shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and sketch the way scenario modelers went from qualitative storylines of the future to spatially and temporally resolved forcing input to our climate model simulations of the 21st century.

In the second half of the talk, I will focus on temperature and precipitation projections under the main SSPs chosen by the ScenarioMIP experimental design. I will show results of the multi-model ensemble that participated in CMIP6 ScenarioMIP. In terms of global time series and spatial patterns from the models’ most recent simulations, and compare them to their CMIP5 predecessors, for a number of scenarios meant to be comparable (with some important caveats). I will briefly touch on the issue of high climate sensitivity in the CMIP6 ensemble, and, also, show some of the results related to the crossing of policy-relevant thresholds, like 1.5C and 2.0C.



Claudia Tebaldi has been working on climate change science since the early 2000s. She is a statistician by training and has always enjoyed working on problems that involve signal-to-noise analysis. These have been mainly centered around uncertainty characterization in future projections, with focus on changes at the regional scale, particularly in extremes, and observation-based detection and attribution studies.  She is keen to connect her work on the physical changes of the climate system to impact studies and risk assessment.

Dr. Tebaldi was a staff scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and Climate Central Inc. and joined the Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) in 2019.

Dr. Tebaldi was a Lead Author for Working Group 1 (The Physical Science Basis) of the Fifth and Sixth Assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and a Contributing Author for Working Group 1 and 2 of the Fourth IPCC Assessment. She is currently an author for the 5th US National Climate Assessment (NCA5).


Contact: Maria Molina

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AOSC Seminar

Pre-seminar refreshment: N/A
Seminar: 3:30-4:30pm, Room: ATL 2400(only when in-person)
Meet-the-Speaker: 4:30-5:00pm, Room: ATL 3400(only when in-person) [For AOSC Students only]

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