AOSC Seminar by Dr. Craig Long, 11/19/2020
Dr. Craig Long
Title: Monitoring the stratosphere: events and interactions with the troposphere
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) monitors the stratosphere for both short term events and for
long term trends. This presentation will provide an overview of what CPC monitors in the stratosphere
and why. Short term events include Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and alternatively Vortex
Intensification. Both events are not only unique to the stratosphere, but also can impact the
tropospheric circulation for multiple weeks. Another short term event is the Antarctic Ozone Hole and,
the quite rare, Arctic Ozone Hole. These “manmade” phenomena have only been in existence since the
1980’s. However, they too have impacts upon the tropospheric circulation. CPC utilizes NCEP models to
forecast the development of these events and then monitors them as they develop, peak, and decline.
CPC then relates these events with past events to determine relationships with precursors. Lastly, CPC
then historically relates these events to determine patterns or trends. As time allows, additional topics
that will be presented are Stratospheric Intrusions and the UV Index forecasts.
Craig Long received his BS in Meteorology from the Pennsylvania State University in 1977, and his M.S. from the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 1980. From there he moved to NASA Goddard Space Flight Center where he joined the Laboratory for Atmospheres and from there to what preceded NESDIS/STAR working on cloud detection issues. In the 1990 he joined the Stratosphere Group at the NOAA Climate Analysis Center (later to become the Climate Prediction Center). There his work centered on the EOS Aura observations as relevant to NCEP modeling and for stratospheric monitoring of such phenomena as detection of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings/Vortex Intensification and their impact on the troposphere, UltraViolet Index forecasts, and 'soon to come' Atmospheric Blocking.
Contact: Rachel Pinker
Pre-seminar refreshment: N/A
Seminar: 3:30-4:30pm, Zoom
Meet-the-Speaker: 4:30-5:00pm, Zoom [For AOSC Students only]