Event Start
Event Time
3:30 p.m.

AOSC Seminar by Dr. Fred Ogden, 10/12/2023

AOSC Seminar

Dr. Fred Ogden

NOAA/NWS Office of Water Prediction



Advancing NOAA/NWS water prediction capabilities with NOAA's Next Generation Water Resources Modeling Framework



Since August, 2016, the US National Weather Service has operated the WRF-Hydro based National Water Model (NWM) to provide flood guidance along 3.4 million miles of streams and rivers.  Now running NWM version 3.0, version-on-version increases in performance due to enhanced calibration and parameter regionalization have started to plateau.  The hydrologic literature strongly suggests that hydrologic models formulated to simulate dominant local processes outperform more general models that select process through parameter tuning.  There are two reasons for this: (1) the uniqueness of place in hydrology, and (2) the so-called “parsimony” argument, which states models with an optimum number of parameters generally perform as well or better than models with a larger number of parameters.  Unlike the atmosphere and the ocean, the response of catchments to rainfall or meltwater forcing is often discontinuous, with strong influences from land cover and use, antecedent conditions, groundwater and soil-based thresholds and small-scale land surface heterogeneities.  This presentation anticipates advances from the Next Generation Water Resources Modeling Framework with joint benefits to the hydrologic science and operational water prediction communities by increasing NWM predictive skill.  OWP plans to deploy version 4.0 of the NWM using the NextGen Framework.



Dr. Fred Ogden is Chief Scientist for the NOAA/NWS Office of Water Prediction, working at the National Water Center in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.  He applies his expertise to provide technical vision for OWP’s Next Generation water prediction capabilities.  From 2006-2017, Dr. Ogden held an endowed professorship in the Dept. of Civil Engineering at the University of Wyoming.  Notably, from 2013-2017 he led of a multidisciplinary NSF field project evaluating the effectiveness of payments for ecosystem services schemes in the Panama Canal watershed aimed at increasing dry season river flows and reducing flood flows and sediment deliveries in the rainy season.  Between 1994 and 2005, Dr. Ogden held ranks of Assistant and tenured Associate Professor in the Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of Connecticut in Storrs, where he received the U.S. Army Research Office Young Investigator award.  He was awarded the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Collingwood Prize in 1999 for a survey paper on sediment control at riverside water intake structures.  He received the ASCE Arid Lands Hydraulic Engineering Award in 2015 for his work with collaborators and graduate students developing novel computational hydrological models including: CASC2D, GSSHA, and ADHydro.  Dr. Ogden led the team that in 2017 first derived an alternative form of the Richardson/Richards’ equation called the Soil Moisture Velocity Equation that provides theoretical support to novel, accurate, and robust 1-D soil water infiltration solutions.  A paper from this work received the 2015 “Coolest Paper Award” by the International Association of Hydrogeologists.  He earned B.S. (1987), M.S. (1989) and Ph.D. (1992) degrees in Civil Engineering from Colorado State University.  He has authored or co-authored with students over 200 peer-reviewed papers, chapters, reports, and conference submissions.  Dr. Ogden has served on numerous review and advisory panels and professional committees.  Notably from 2008-2012 he served as an administrative law judge on the State of Wyoming Environmental Quality Council.  From 2011-2012 he chaired the ASCE/EWRI Surface Water Hydrology Technical Committee.  He is a licensed Professional Engineer in Colorado, a member of AGU, AMS, and a fellow of the ASCE.


Contact: Louis Uccellini

If you are not subscribed to seminar announcements and need a link to this online seminar please contact aosc-helper. You can also subscribe to weekly links and announcements below. 

AOSC Seminar

Pre-seminar refreshment: N/A
Seminar: 3:30-4:30pm, Room: ATL 2400(only when in-person)
Meet-the-Speaker: 4:30-5:00pm, Room: ATL 3400(only when in-person) [For AOSC Students only]

Subscribe to receive seminar announcements | Email aosc-deptseminar@umd.edu to give a seminar ]

Event Start