AOSC Seminar by Dr. Kevin Reed, 10/29/2020
Dr. Kevin Reed
School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook
Title: Detecting climate change impacts on tropical cyclones
Abstract: The next century will see unprecedented changes to the climate system with direct consequences for society. As stated in the National Climate Assessment, “changes in extreme weather events are the primary way that most people experience climate change.” In this sense, the characteristics of extreme weather are key indicators of climate change impacts, at both local and regional scales. Understanding potential changes in the location, intensity and structure of such extremes (e.g., tropical cyclones, severe thunderstorms and flooding) is crucial in planning for future adaptation as these events have large economic and social costs. The goal of this work is to better understand climate impacts on tropical cyclones in various high-resolution configurations of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) run at horizontal grid spacings of approximately 28 km and forced with prescribed sea-surface temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations for past, present, and future climates. This analysis will include the evaluation of conventional (AMIP-style) decadal simulations typical of climate models, short 7-day ensemble hindcasts of recent devastating events, and reduced complexity simulations of idealized states of the climate system. Through this hierarchical modeling approach the impact of climate change on the characteristics (frequency, intensity, rainfall, etc.) of tropical cyclones can be quantified.
Short Bio: Dr. Kevin Reed is an Associate Professor in the School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences at Stony Brook University. Prior to coming to Stony Brook University, Dr. Reed was a Postdoctoral Research Fellow in the Advanced Study Program at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO and spent time as a Science Policy Advisor in the U.S. Senate through the American Geophysical Union Congressional Science Fellowship. Dr. Reed received his Ph.D. and M.S. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Michigan, where he also completed a Graduate Certificate in Science, Technology, and Public Policy and his B.S. in Physics. At Stony Brook University Dr. Reed founded and leads the Climate Extremes Modeling (CEM) Group, which focuses on investigating how societally-relevant extreme events, such as hurricanes, may change in the coming decades. This research aids in advancing our scientific understanding of the impacts of climate change, as well as developing new methodologies to better translate state-of-the-art science for climate adaptation applications and policies.
Contact: Jonathan Poterjoy
Pre-seminar refreshment: N/A
Seminar: 3:30-4:30pm, Zoom
Meet-the-Speaker: 4:30-5:00pm, Zoom [For AOSC Students only]