AOSC Seminar by Dr. Megan Lickley, 3/9/2023
AOSC Seminar
Dr. Megan Lickley
Georgetown University
Title:
Joint inference of halocarbon emissions, banks, and lifetimes, with impacts on the ozone layer and climate
Abstract:
Chlorofluorocarbons and their replacement chemicals are potent greenhouse gases whose production is regulated under the Montreal Protocol. These halocarbons are contained in equipment such as air conditioners, fire extinguishers, and foams and continue to be emitted after production has ceased. These ‘banks’ within equipment and applications are thus potential sources of future emissions, and must be carefully accounted for in order to evaluate ongoing compliance with the Montreal Protocol. Quantifying bank emissions versus nascent emissions has been limited by large uncertainties in bank size as well as uncertainties in atmospheric lifetimes. In this talk I will present a probabilistic Bayesian model of halocarbon banks and emissions, incorporating the widest range of constraints to date. I will show how jointly considering production and emissions of multiple gases can reduce uncertainty in lifetimes and ultimately better constrain banks, production and emissions estimates. I apply this model to the suite of the major banked chemicals regulated under the Montreal Protocol. I will show that if atmospheric lifetime and prior assumptions are accurate, banks are very likely larger than previous international assessments suggest, and that production has very likely been higher than reported.
Bio:
Dr. Megan Lickley is an Assistant Professor at Georgetown in the Science, Technology, and International Affair Program and The Earth Commons. Her research integrates data science with climate science to evaluate climate impacts and target climate policy at multiple scales, from multilateral environmental agreements to local infrastructure planning. Her most recent work evaluates emissions, production and banks of chemicals regulated under the Montreal Protocol. Her banks model has been adopted by the 2022 International Ozone Assessment, in which she is a co-author.
Contact: Ross Salawitch
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AOSC Seminar
Pre-seminar refreshment: N/A
Seminar: 3:30-4:30pm, Room: ATL 2400(only when in-person)
Meet-the-Speaker: 4:30-5:00pm, Room: ATL 3400(only when in-person) [For AOSC Students only]
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