AOSC Seminar by Dr. Steven J. Smith, 02/13/2025
AOSC Seminar
Steven J. Smith
Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI)
Title
The History and Future of the Atmosphere: Historical Emissions Data and CMIP7
Abstract
Emissions of reactive air pollutant species and aerosols impact human health, ecosystems, cloud formation and evolution, and Earth’s radiative balance. The talk will present “hot of the press” estimates of global anthropogenic air pollutant emissions from 1750 - 2023 produced by the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS). On a global level, emissions of some air pollutant species have been generally declining for several decades (SO2, CO), while others have been decreasing only within the last two decades (NOx, BC, OC), with some stable or still increasing (NMVOC, NH3). CEDS emissions will be used as the historical forcing data for the next phase of CMIP, CMIP7, with historical simulations starting soon. The design of CMIP7 is different in several ways from previous rounds, including a near-term set of CMIP7-Fast Track simulations, and a change to how historical data is used designed to facilitate extension of CMIP7 historical model ensembles. The future scenario datasets for CMIP7-Fast Track are now being developed and will be released over this summer for use in foundational Earth system model experiments designed to explore a range of possible forcing trajectories over the 21st century and beyond.
Bio
Dr. Steven J Smith is an Earth Scientist at the Joint Global Change Research Institute College Park, MD, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and a Research Professor at the University of Maryland, Center for Global Sustainability. Smith’s research has focused on long-term socioeconomic scenarios, the interface between socioeconomic systems and the Earth system, and interactions between air pollution and forcing. Smith is co-principal investigator of the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) project that produces global historical air pollutant emissions over the industrial era (1750-present). CEDS provides the historical forcing data for Earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project and other modeling and analysis efforts around the globe. Smith also works with the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), which he and collaborators are using to examine multi-sector interactions between the energy system and air-pollutant emissions from global to regional scales. Smith also contributes to national and international assessment activities, and is a member of the scientific steering committee for the Global Emissions InitiAtive (GEIA).
Contact
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AOSC Seminar
Pre-seminar refreshment: N/A
Seminar: 3:30-4:30pm, Room: ATL 2400(only when in-person)
Meet-the-Speaker: 4:30-5:00pm, Room: ATL 3400(only when in-person) [For AOSC Students only]
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