AOSC Seminar by Dr. Victor Yakovenko, 03/13/2025

AOSC Seminar

Victor M. Yakovenko

Department of Physics and JQI, University of Maryland, College Park

Title

The Mathematics of Human Population Growth and CO₂ Emissions

Abstract

In a paper published in the Science magazine in 1960, von Foerster et al. argued that human population growth follows a hyperbolic pattern with a singularity in 2026.  Using current empirical data from 10,000 BCE to 2023 CE, we re-examine this claim.  We find that human population initially grew exponentially as N(t)~exp(t/T) with T~3000 years.  This growth then gradually evolved to be super-exponential with a form similar to the Bose function in statistical physics.  Population growth further accelerated around 1700, entering the hyperbolic regime N(t)=C/(ts-t) with the projected singularity year ts=2030, which essentially confirms the prediction by von Foerster et al.  We attribute the switch from the super-exponential to the hyperbolic regime to the onset of the Industrial Revolution and the transition to massive use of fossil fuels. This claim is supported by a linear relation that we find between population and the increase in the atmospheric level of CO₂ from 1700 to 2000.  But in the 21st century, we observe that the inverse population curve 1/N(t) deviates from a straight line and follows a pattern of "avoided crossing" described by the square root of the Lorentzian function.  Thus, instead of a singularity, we predict a peak in human population at ts=2030 of the time width \tau=32 years.  We also find that the increase in the atmospheric CO₂ level since 1700 is well fitted by arccot[(ts-t)/\tau_F] with \tau_F=40 years, which implies a peak in the annual CO₂ emissions at the same year ts=2030.

Publication: V. M. Yakovenko, Physica A 661, 130412 (2025), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2025.130412 (open access)

Bio

Victor Yakovenko is a Professor of Physics at the University of Maryland.  He is a Fellow of the American Physical Society and was a recipient of the Sloan Research Fellowship and the Packard Fellowship in Science and Engineering.  He is a theoretical physicist, studying electronic properties of various materials for more than 40 years.  He is also well known for his work in econophysics, applying methods of statistical physics to economics and finance.

Victor Yakovenko was born in Donetsk, Ukraine and studied in the Ukraine-wide physical-mathematical boarding high school in Kyiv.  He graduated from Moscow Physical-Technical Institute with M.S. in 1984 and completed his Ph.D. at the Landau Institute for Theoretical Physics in 1987, where he was subsequently employed as a Research Scientist.  In 1991 he became a Postdoc at the Department of Physics, Rutgers University.  In 1993 he joined the University of Maryland, College Park as Assistant Professor and became Associate Professor in 1999 and Full Professor in 2004.  More info at https://physics.umd.edu/~yakovenk/

Contact

Ross Salawitch

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AOSC Seminar

Pre-seminar refreshment: N/A
Seminar: 3:30-4:30pm, Room: ATL 2400(only when in-person)
Meet-the-Speaker: 4:30-5:00pm, Room: ATL 3400(only when in-person) [For AOSC Students only]

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