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AOSC Seminar by Karen McKinnon, 10/22/2026

     
3:30 p.m.
Atlantic Building Room 2400 & Zoom

AOSC Seminar by Karen McKinnon, 10/22/2026

AOSC Seminar

 

Karen McKinnon

Previous: UCLA; New: JHU

 

Title

Heat extremes in a Changing Climate

 

Abstract

Extremes are inherently undersampled in the historical record, but are the climatic events that have the largest impacts. How can we best determine their probability and mechanisms? In this talk, I will first share about the June 2021 Pacific Northwest heat wave that was so extreme it was initially difficult to determine a nonzero probability for it. In our work, we identify the important role of non-normality -- caused by a convergence of multiple processes -- in indicating the potential for very extreme events. Although the event occurred during very dry conditions, we find that the role of land-atmosphere interactions was relatively small. Despite a general expectation that land-atmosphere interactions will cause greater warming of heat extremes, we find that historical heat extremes are changing at the same pace as the median, and suggest that one reason is a self-limiting feedback wherein locations with strong land-atmosphere coupling exhibit reduced declines in soil moisture on the hottest days. 

 

Bio

Karen McKinnon is a professor of Statistics and the Environment at the University of California, Los Angeles. Beginning in November 2026, she will join the Department of Environmental Health and Engineering in the Whiting School of Engineering at Johns Hopkins University. Her research sits at the nexus of climate change and statistics, and is aimed at improving our understanding and prediction of climate extremes, variability, and change. She is a 2027 American Meteorological Society Henry G. Houghton Awardee, a 2024 NSF CAREER awardee, a 2023 Kavli Fellow, and a 2021 Packard Fellow in Science and Engineering, and she has served as an advisor for both city governments and private companies regarding climate change. Prof. McKinnon received her B.A., M.A., and Ph.D. from Harvard University, as well as an M.Sc. from Victoria University of Wellington. She was an Advanced Study Program post-doc at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and an Applied Scientist at Descartes Labs before joining UCLA.

 

Contact

Maria Molina

 

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AOSC Seminar

Pre-seminar refreshment: N/A
Seminar: 3:30-4:30pm, Room: ATL 2400(only when in-person)
Meet-the-Speaker: 4:30-5:00pm, Room: ATL 3400(only when in-person) [For AOSC Students only]

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