AOSC Seminar by Dr. Natalie Burls, 11/06/2025
AOSC Seminar
Natalie Burls
George Mason University
Title
Hydroclimate insights from the warm Pliocene, Miocene, and Eocene
Abstract
A warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor supporting an amplified hydrological cycle with both more intense precipitation events and droughts. Yet future climate projections are uncertain when it comes to predicting climatological changes in regional hydroclimate, particularly for subtropical and Mediterranean climates. Past warm climates in Earth's history offer an opportunity to learn how regional hydroclimate responds to global warming. Here we review insights from several studies that model and reconstruct hydroclimate during the warm climates of the Pliocene, Miocene and Eocene. A common finding is the importance of correctly predicting warming patterns and their impact on large-scale circulation, leading to circulation driven changes in climatological moisture convergence. Most notably, climate models that simulate the largest reduction in equator-to-pole temperature gradients are characterized by a reduction in subtropical moisture divergence, leading to an increase in mean annual precipitation and better agreement with proxy reconstructions.
Bio
Dr. Burls is an Associate Professor in the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic & Earth Sciences at George Mason University, and the Director of the Climate Dynamics Program. Her research focuses on improving our understanding of the processes determining Earth’s climate and climate variability on timescales ranging from seasonal to geological. Complementing observations with theory, she endeavors to accompany complex simulations of climate phenomena with simple models capturing the essential dynamics required to explain unanswered questions within climate science. She earned her PhD in Physical Oceanography from the University of Cape Town in 2010 and completed a postdoctoral fellowship at Yale University. Since joining GMU in 2015, she has received several prestigious awards, including the NSF CAREER Award, a Sloan Research Fellowship in Ocean Sciences, and a Teacher of Distinction Award from GMU's Stearns Center for Teaching and Learning.
Contact
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AOSC Seminar
Pre-seminar refreshment: N/A
Seminar: 3:30-4:30pm, Room: ATL 2400(only when in-person)
Meet-the-Speaker: 4:30-5:00pm, Room: ATL 3400(only when in-person) [For AOSC Students only]
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