AOSC Seminar by Hailan Wang, 04/30/2026
AOSC Seminar
Hailan Wang
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center
Title
Bridging Research and Operations in U.S. Drought Prediction: Toward Actionable Forecasting
Abstract
Drought is among the costliest weather and climate disasters impacting the United States, ranking only after tropical cyclone and severe storm. Accurate and skillful drought forecasts on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales are essential for improving preparedness and reducing drought-related impacts and costs. This seminar presents progress in U.S. drought prediction and the continuing effort to translate scientific advances into operational forecasting. Drought forecast skill on S2S timescales depends on a combination of factors, including leading modes of SST variability, stationary Rossby waves, land–atmosphere interactions, and the ability of forecast systems to accurately represent these processes. Model biases remain an important limitation, shaping the level of skill that can be achieved in practice. These scientific and technical developments are directly relevant to NOAA’s official Drought Outlooks, which are routinely produced and issued by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) within the National Weather Service (NWS). Building on this operational foundation, the seminar will also present CPC’s newly developed probabilistic Drought Outlooks, designed to better address evolving user needs. Lastly, challenges, needs, and future opportunities for improving S2S drought forecasts will be discussed.
Bio
Dr. Hailan Wang is a meteorologist and the drought research lead at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) within National Weather Service (NWS), specializing in drought monitoring and prediction. In this role, she leads research and development at CPC to develop new U.S. drought monitoring and prediction products while also improving existing ones. Her recent work includes leading the development of CPC’s new probabilistic Drought Outlooks to address evolving user needs. She also conducts research aimed at understanding the causes, physical mechanisms, predictability, and prediction of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate, with a focus on drought. Dr. Wang is involved in the NOAA S2S and drought communities, having co-organized numerous NOAA and cross-agency webinars and workshops, including the recently launched NOAA Drought Seminar Series, and participated in various national drought working groups providing input on drought-related topics. She has authored or co-authored 78 peer-reviewed publications and serves as an editor of the Journal of Climate. Dr. Wang holds a Ph.D. in atmospheric sciences from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
Contact
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AOSC Seminar
Pre-seminar refreshment: N/A
Seminar: 3:30-4:30pm, Room: ATL 2400(only when in-person)
Meet-the-Speaker: 4:30-5:00pm, Room: ATL 3400(only when in-person) [For AOSC Students only]
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