'Indian Niño' Drove Record Heat in 2023 and 2024, New UMD Study Finds
It’s the first time this Indian Ocean climate pattern has been connected to the recent years’ unusually high temperatures.
In 2023 and 2024, Earth’s average global surface temperature spiked nearly 0.3 degrees Celsius above what was already expected from climate change. Each year was declared the hottest on record and coincided with deadly wildfires, heat waves and historic numbers of climate-related disasters.
Scientists have struggled to explain what caused these anomalously warm years. In a new study, published May 6, 2026, in the journal Earth System Dynamics, University of Maryland researchers propose a novel answer: They attribute part of the temperature surge to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a climate cycle similar to El Niño. It’s the first time the IOD has been linked to these two unusually hot years.
Read the full CMNS press release
UMD AOSC graduate student Brian Bennett and Associate Professor Timothy Canty co-authored this article with Farago and Salawitch.
The paper, “Quantification of the influence of anthropogenic and natural factors on the record-high temperatures in 2023 and 2024,” was published in Earth System Dynamics on May 6, 2026.
This research was supported by the NASA Climate Indicators and Data Products for Future National Climate Assessments program. This article does not necessarily reflect the views of this organization.
- Log in to post comments
